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Calculating the ideal BUY / SELL window to optimize value

Jonas Sickler

Active Member
First Name
Jonas
Joined
May 18, 2025
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7
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Location
Syracuse
Vehicles
ID.4
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As a data analyst, I love looking at charts and optimizing things. Just for fun, I built a sheet to look at the residual value of a CPO Macan vs loan balance and warranty.

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GOAL
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Find an optimal window to buy, own, and then sell a lightly-optioned CPO Macan 4.

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NOTE
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There is no long-term depreciation data for the electric Macan, so all of this is just fun speculation and should not be taken seriously. However, the fundamentals are sound, so as more data emerges, I'll continue to update my numbers to make it more accurate. To estimate residual value, I combined 9 years of depreciation data from the ICE Macan with 4 years of depreciation data for the Taycan.

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DETAILS
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THE CAR: 2024 Macan 4 with minimal options (leather package, lane keep, 14-way ventilated seats) MSRP just under $85k USD. On average, the projected residual value of similarly-specced Macan 4's after 36 months is around $45k-$46k based on current advertised lease deals and forum responses.

THE LOAN: I used $45,000 as the loan amount and calculated the balance of the loan out over 60 and 72 months with an interest rate of 5.84% (used car rate from BoA). I wanted to keep the monthly payment under $1,000. And this payment landed around $870 per month with zero down.

(I realize there are other fees to consider — tax, doc, title and tags etc. I'm keeping this simple and leaving them out of this model for now. It's just meant to be directional.)

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CONCLUSION
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Buying the 3 year old CPO 2024 Macan 4, holding it for 2-3 years, and selling it as soon as the warranty runs out seems like the best value based on this data so far. My payment will be relatively low for a great CPO Porsche, I'll have a few thousand dollars in equity, the car will be under warranty, and I won't likely need to replace tires.

Holding the car until year 4 of the loan does build more equity, but you'll probably need new tires which will eat up a chunk of that equity, and you risk a major repair since you'll be out of warranty. Remember, by year 4 of the loan, the car will actually be 7 years old since you are buying it when it's already 3 years old in this scenario.

Electric Macan EV Calculating the ideal BUY / SELL window to optimize value porsche macan 4 value chart
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