Buying vs leasing (and possibly buying then): my numbers

[PanameraFrank]

oh man...a SINGLE online auction of a used luxury car is nothing to use an indicator.

How so? What is?

You're saying the price the market was willing to pay for a car isn't an indicator of its value?

BaT is a completely legit site. You add 5% (the buyer fee) to the bid value and you're going to be right at private party value.

 

[tmrqs]

Going back to the topic (sorry guys ), I discovered this way to save quite a bit... in case it can help others!

 

[krissrock]

How so? What is?

You're saying the price the market was willing to pay for a car isn't an indicator of its value?

BaT is a completely legit site. You add 5% (the buyer fee) to the bid value and you're going to be right at private party value.

you think your avg porsche buyers are on that site to buy their cars?
i'm doubtful...and it's 1 car...

 

[stashman]

What does: “you’ll take a bath if you buy directly” mean on the 39 month lease after walking away mean?

 

[PanameraFrank]

FWIW my 2 year/10k miles lease on my 4S ended up at $57k total over 2 years. The 10.6% sales tax doesn't help. One pay was technically less but actually more just by considering a savings rate on the cash.

I really believe that buying outright and selling in 2 years would cost more. I'd have to get 73.5k (120K out the door - 57k + 10k for simply putting that cash in a high yield savings instead) in 2 years on a 20k mile car to match that, and I think the depreciation is going to be worse than that. I really do.

 

[cottony]

FWIW my 2 year/10k miles lease on my 4S ended up at $57k total over 2 years. The 10.6% sales tax doesn't help. One pay was technically less but actually more just by considering a savings rate on the cash.

I really believe that buying outright and selling in 2 years would cost more. I'd have to get 73.5k (120K out the door - 57k + 10k for simply putting that cash in a high yield savings instead) in 2 years on a 20k mile car to match that, and I think the depreciation is going to be worse than that. I really do.

i've been playing around with my lease numbers, and i'm drawing the opposite conclusion, actually. have you considered buying out the lease early? the savings in rent charges essentially provides a buffer against depreciation[1].

crunching the numbers on my 2yr one-pay lease, the breakeven depreciation is as follows, depending on which month i buy out. the breakeven depreciation[2] is defined as the amount of depreciation that needs to happen at lease end to make buying out cost the same as leasing; if the realized depreciation is more, then leasing is advantageous; if the realized depreciation is less, then buying is advantageous.

in my chart below, if i buy out after 1 month, leasing would be less expensive ONLY IF my car were to depreciate > 52.77% at the end of my 2 year-lease.

it's hard to estimate depreciation for the macan cause it's a new model, but looking at depreciation for the 2yr-old taycans, i am not seeing a steep enough depreciation curve to make leasing profitable (and this is also with the updated 2025 taycan model, which should theoretically drive the older taycans down in value).

my current plan is to wait ~3months or so, just to make sure this car doesn't have any issues, and then buy out the lease. i'm essentially taking the bet that the car won't depreciate > 51.77% in 2 years.

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[1] the savings from rent charges is significantly greater than any hysa/no-risk investment strategies, so no need to factor that in here.

[2] note, i am calculating depreciation off of the total cash price of the car, not sale price... not sure if that's the right methodology

 

[PanameraFrank]

I think the leases work significantly differently for you than they do in the US. I'm not super familiar with the exact charges and such.

In the US it's pretty simple,. cash in/cash out and factoring in the yield from available cash.

So for me..
57k over 2 years (inc 7k cash down) for the lease
Versus 120k cash immediately, minus the anticipated resale value in 2 years, plus a basic safe yield off of the cash (which I figure around 100k to factor in lease payments)

That puts me at needing to get 73.5k in 2 years, or 67.5 if I lease then buyout in 3 months. I don't think either number is anywhere near realistic. My 4 month old, Gen2 R1S (Rivians are INSANELY popular) with sub 7k miles, perfect shape, just sold for 69% purchase price.

Keep in mind Taycans simply aren't selling for the listed price. You need to check auctions and sales records to find their actual value and I think you'd be quite surprised by how badly they're depreciating. Dealerships routinely list 2 year old used cars for tens of thousands more than they sell for.

Used EVs are nearly impossible to move. People that want EVs want new vehicles. It's a rough market. The lease protects me from having to deal with it or be at all concerned.

 

[cottony]

I think the leases work significantly differently for you than they do in the US. I'm not super familiar with the exact charges and such.

In the US it's pretty simple,. cash in/cash out and factoring in the yield from available cash.

So for me..
57k over 2 years (inc 7k cash down) for the lease
Versus 120k cash immediately, minus the anticipated resale value in 2 years, plus a basic safe yield off of the cash (which I figure around 100k to factor in lease payments)

That puts me at needing to get 73.5k in 2 years, or 67.5 if I lease then buyout in 3 months. I don't think either number is anywhere near realistic. My 4 month old, Gen2 R1S (Rivians are INSANELY popular) with sub 7k miles, perfect shape, just sold for 69% purchase price.

Keep in mind Taycans simply aren't selling for the listed price. You need to check auctions and sales records to find their actual value and I think you'd be quite surprised by how badly they're depreciating. Dealerships routinely list 2 year old used cars for tens of thousands more than they sell for.

Used EVs are nearly impossible to move. People that want EVs want new vehicles. It's a rough market. The lease protects me from having to deal with it or be at all concerned.

im in the US lol. I set my location to US but for some reason it’s still showing the Swedish flag

I’m pretty surprised if your savings on early buyout is only 6k. It should be much much more, like for me it’s about 11.5k @ 3month buyout

 

[PanameraFrank]

im in the US lol. I set my location to US but for some reason it’s still showing the Swedish flag

I’m pretty surprised if your savings on early buyout is only 6k. It should be much much more, like for me it’s about 11.5k @ 3month buyout

How? They gave you a lease discount? Are you calculating taxes on the remainder?

 

[cottony]

How? They gave you a lease discount? Are you calculating taxes on the remainder?

@tmqrs covered it in this post. But basically when you buy out early, you don’t pay the rent charge for the remaining months. For my lease, that’s $540/month.

 

[PanameraFrank]

I understand the rent charge, the same as you wouldn't pay APR if you buy a loan out early, but that still doesn't explain where the -extra- discount is coming from. You still owe the full value + sales tax - 7,500. The 7,500, minus rent charges on any payments already made, should be the only money gained. Ie.. around 6,000 after 3 months, with 3 rent charges around $500.

I saw his post but I still don't understand where the extra money is coming from. I'll have to check what my payoff shows as soon as I'm able.

11.5K savings starts to look more attractive, although still not a slam dunk over the safety of a lease.

 

[tmrqs]

I understand the rent charge, the same as you wouldn't pay APR if you buy a loan out early, but that still doesn't explain where the -extra- discount is coming from. You still owe the full value + sales tax - 7,500. The 7,500, minus rent charges on any payments already made, should be the only money gained. Ie.. around 6,000 after 3 months, with 3 rent charges around $500.

I saw his post but I still don't understand where the extra money is coming from. I'll have to check what my payoff shows as soon as I'm able.

11.5K savings starts to look more attractive, although still not a slam dunk over the safety of a lease.

If I bought my leased car now, I would save:
- over $11k vs buying it at the end of my 24 months lease
- over $6k vs buying it cash instead of having started my lease

In both cases, the lease would make me save a ton of $.
But the question is whether the car will depreciate so much that even that discount won’t offset the losses when I decide to sell it.

 

[USMA81]

As I posted, I leased and then bought it out in the first month. A couple of general thoughts.

First, the leasing company estimates the residual value, and they likely will error in their favor (lower residual value, higher monthly lease payments). The lease payments reflect their estimate of the depreciation. So the leasees already are paying for that estimated (high) depreciation in the lease payment. Of course, Porsche Financial Services could be wrong on the estimated residual value, but then they mitigate that risk with the interest rate (below).

The lease interest rate earns them interest income to buffer being wrong on the residual value. Let’s say they can borrow at, say, 5-6%. They charge 9-10%. They net 3-5%. And they have the origination fee.

I would break even on the interest cost if could earn 9-10% on the money I initially saved by leasing and that I could invest. The market is in a bubble and likely won’t return 10%, and an interest bearing account won’t yield that either.

The first gen Taycan had issues. That negatively affected its residual value significantly (as it would any vehicle, ICE too). Other factors include it being a short-ranged EV and a luxury sedan. I am willing to take the chance that the Macan won’t end up as significantly affected, for several reasons. But it will depreciate, for sure.

Obviously the main benefit of the lease is the federal credit. My numbers show I saved about $5k (leasing fee and interest cut into some of the credit). Each month I would have waited my savings would have declined by a couple hundred dollars. If I was borrowing to buy out the lease, the numbers would have been different; this works best if you have idle cash or a security you plan to sell.

 

[SupremeHustle]

Does it matter what kind of lease you do if you're going to buy it a day or two later? I'm thinking about leasing it just to get the $7,500. Otherwise, I'd just buy it.

Note: I know the dealership wants you to wait to pay off a lease because that benefits them, and I get that for people who want to remain in their good graces, but that is not a concern of mine.

 

[PanameraFrank]

Does it matter what kind of lease you do if you're going to buy it a day or two later? I'm thinking about leasing it just to get the $7,500. Otherwise, I'd just buy it.

Note: I know the dealership wants you to wait to pay off a lease because that benefits them, and I get that for people who want to remain in their good graces, but that is not a concern of mine.

You'll always pay one month, so whatever gives you the smallest rent charge. But the difference will be minor.

Just make sure you double check the paperwork before you sign. I checked mine and there was nothing about a penalty for buying out early and the paperwork on the pass through credit didn't have any stipulations, but make sure that's the same for yours before you sign.

I would recommend paying for 3 months (so really only 2 additional months). While you may not care about your dealership (I certainly don't) you may also find service very difficult/slow/no loaners available in your area if you buy out immediately. The dealerships talk to each other and while they have to service your car, there's nothing stopping them from putting you as their least important customer. You may also be rejected by PFS for further leases.

You'll just pay 2 additional months of rent charges, but you'll still save a ton. I think it's probably the fairest option.

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